This YouTube video, "The World is Not Ending | Bjørn Lomborg | EP 315," features Jordan B. Peterson speaking with Dr. Bjorn Lomborg, a researcher and author known for his work with the Copenhagen Consensus think tank. Lomborg's work focuses on identifying and promoting the "smartest ways to do good" to address global challenges, drawing on data and economic analysis rather than apocalyptic narratives. The discussion critiques contemporary environmental alarmism and advocates for a data-driven, optimistic approach to human progress and environmental improvement.
Here are the key points from the video:
1. Critique of Apocalyptic Narratives and the "Religious Metaphor"
- The "End of Times" Narrative: Both Peterson and Lomborg highlight that young people are being fed an apocalyptic narrative, suggesting "this is the end of times" and that the world is "terrible" and "going to end". This creates a sense of guilt and fear, particularly around the idea of having children.
- Implicit Religious Metaphor: Peterson introduces Alex Epstein's argument that the prevailing environmental narrative is based on an implicit religious metaphor: the planet as "fragile and virginal," continually "pillaged" by a "devouring and negative" patriarchy (culture), with the individual human seen as a "predator" and "parasite". This one-sided story emphasizes a "positive female" (Mother Nature) and a "negative male" (cultural force), leading to "nature worship, the derogation of culture, and the damnation of the individual".
- Historical Context: Lomborg contrasts this modern view with a historical reality where humanity was "terrified of nature" due to its dangers (e.g., smallpox, which killed 300 million in the 20th century). He argues that only through human efforts to "make the world safer" have we gained the luxury to appreciate and "love nature".
- "Unearned Moral Virtue." Opponents are cast as morally corrupt for not accepting the apocalyptic narrative.
2. Data-Driven Optimism and Human Progress
- Data as "Religion": Lomborg states his "religion is data," asserting that meaningful understanding comes from objective patterns rather than stories or metaphors.
- Dramatic Decline in Climate Disaster Deaths: Contrary to popular belief, deaths from climate-related disasters (floods, droughts, storms, wildfires, extreme temperatures) have declined by over 99% in the last 100 years. From half a million deaths annually in the 1920s, the number dropped to less than 7,000 in 2021. This is attributed to humanity's improved ability to "handle" and adapt to these events, not because the climate has improved.
- Poverty Alleviation: In the last 25 years, almost a billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty, a fact that rarely makes headlines. This demonstrates significant global progress.
- Increased Life Expectancy: Global life expectancy has more than doubled from 32 years in 1900 to 74 years today, a "stunning statistic" driven by technology, medical advancements, and improved sanitation.
- Global Greening and Reforestation: Lomborg notes that rich nations, once they achieve prosperity, often reforest their lands (e.g., Denmark went from 2% to 14% forest cover after cutting down most of it for resources). This aligns with the idea that wealth leads to environmental care.
3. The Role of Technology and Innovation
- Technology as the Solution: Lomborg emphasizes that technological innovation is the primary driver for solving problems, not wishful thinking or restrictions.
- Historical Examples: The automobile solved the "horse manure crisis" in cities around 1900. The discovery of mineral oil in Pennsylvania effectively stopped the widespread hunting of whales for oil, as it was a cheaper and better alternative.
- Future Energy: The way to solve climate change is by developing technologies that deliver "clean energy or cleaner energy at much lower cost". He mentions nuclear power as a proven decarbonization method (though currently costly) and potential breakthroughs in fourth-generation nuclear and fusion.
- The Green Revolution: Norman Borlaug and other researchers developed genetically modified (through conventional breeding) seeds for rice and wheat, which significantly increased food production, transforming countries like India from a "basket case" to a leading rice exporter and saving billions of people from starvation.
4. Critiques of the Modern Environmental Movement's Approach
- Ineffective and Counterproductive Solutions:
- Individual Actions vs. Systemic Change: Actions like "forgo driving my car" or "going vegetarian" have "virtually no impact" on global problems and are "terribly inefficient" solutions.
- Net Zero Costs: The goal of "Net Zero" by 2050 would be "enormously costly and also so terribly terribly fatal for many countries especially the poorer countries," who rely on fossil fuels for necessities like fertilizer (derived from natural gas) to feed half the world's population.
- "Easy Moral Virtue" and the "Messianic Stage": Peterson argues that the movement capitalizes on young people's developmental stage (16-21) where they seek a "broader social mission" and an "easy shortcut to messianic moral virtue". By becoming an "activist who's dead set against the evil patriarchy," they are offered a "Grand Vision" to "save the virginal Planet," avoiding the "difficult, painstaking, conscientious local activity" required for genuine moral effort.
- Anti-Humanism and "Degrowth":
- Devaluation of Human Life: Peterson cites radical environmentalists who believe an "unspoiled River" can be more valuable than "one person or a billion," revealing a "malevolent anti-humanism" that views humans as a "cancer on the face of the planet".
- Degrowth Model: The "degrowth" philosophy, which advocates for making societies poorer to achieve sustainability, is described as a "nightmarish vision of petty tyranny" that would require totalitarian control over every aspect of life.
- Failure of Degrowth in Practice: Germany's move away from fossil fuels and nuclear has led to energy costs five times higher than in the U.S., industrial flight, and an increase in coal burning, worsening emissions per unit of energy produced. This highlights that making people poorer often leads to environmental degradation (e.g., Europeans deforesting for heat).
- Hypocrisy and Neo-Colonialism: Western elites who fly in private jets to discuss "globalist Utopia" are seen as hypocritical for telling developing nations to "stop" developing and using fossil fuels, effectively "mandating poverty" for them. Lomborg argues that "climate reparations" often prop up corrupt regimes and bribe them to keep their populations poor.
- Focus on Problems, Not Solutions: The movement tends to highlight problems without offering practical, efficient, and scalable solutions, instead focusing on "gloomy" rhetoric or "virtue signaling".
5. Wealth, Development, and Environmental Improvement
- Environmental Problems as Poverty Problems: Lomborg asserts that "environmental problems are poverty problems". Poor people often cut down forests to feed their families or burn dirty fuels indoors, leading to health and environmental issues. Once people become "well off," they start caring more about their local environment.
- The Inverse Kuznets Curve: This economic principle suggests that as societies industrialize and become richer, environmental problems initially increase (e.g., air pollution) but then decrease once a certain level of wealth is achieved, allowing for investment in cleaner technologies and environmental protection.
- True Definition of Wealth: Wealth for most people is not luxury but the basics of life: temperature-controlled homes, running water, sanitation, plentiful high-quality food, and opportunities for children's health and education. Providing these to the rest of the world is not only moral but also beneficial for long-term planetary sustainability.
- Indoor Air Pollution: Approximately 3.5 billion people in poorer countries cook and keep warm with "dirty fuels" like dung and cardboard, leading to indoor air pollution equivalent to smoking two packs of cigarettes daily. This kills millions annually, and is a problem solved as people get richer and switch to cleaner fuels like natural gas.
6. Challenging Biological Metaphors of Limits
- Critique of Malthusianism: The idea that human populations are like "mold in a petri dish" or "foxes and rabbits" that will grow until they deplete resources and die off is a "preposterous biological metaphor".
- Human Ingenuity: Unlike single-celled organisms or animals, humans possess foresight and the capacity for "revolutionary transformation" of how they interact with the world, constantly figuring out "how to do more with less". Economists have historically been more accurate than biologists (e.g., Paul Ehrlich vs. Julian Simon bet) in predicting resource availability because they account for human ingenuity.
- Ideas Die Instead of Us: Humans have the unique ability to test ideas abstractly, allowing "stupid scenarios to die before we implement them". This process of "micro deaths and micro rejuvenations" through dialogue and critical thinking allows us to avoid real-world catastrophes.
7. Smart, Cost-Effective Solutions ("Low-Hanging Fruit")
Lomborg emphasizes focusing on "smart solutions" that deliver the "biggest bang for the buck".
- Education for the Poor:
- The Problem: 80% of children aged 10 in low and lower-middle-income countries (4 billion people) cannot read or do basic math. Traditional methods like building more schools or paying teachers more have often proven ineffective.
- The Solution: Tablet-based adaptive learning programs, where children learn for one hour a day at their individual level, have been shown to triple learning rates. This is being implemented in countries like Malawi.
- Cost-Benefit: Investing $1 in this initiative can generate $54 in social good, leading to increased productivity and human flourishing.
- Nutritional Aid for Pregnant Women:
- The Problem: Many pregnant women in poor countries have low levels of essential vitamins and minerals, impacting child development.
- The Solution: Expanding existing infrastructure to provide a daily pill containing necessary nutrients to pregnant women (approximately 50 million annually).
- Cost-Benefit: This "fantastically cheap" intervention, costing around $140 million globally, can significantly improve the health and cognitive development of 50 million children each year. A $1 investment yields $38 in social good.
In summary, the video advocates for a balanced and data-driven perspective, rejecting fear-mongering and the "end of the world" narrative. It champions human ingenuity, technology, and wealth creation as the means to solve global challenges and improve both human well-being and environmental sustainability, encouraging individuals to engage in the "long hard grind" of effective problem-solving rather than "cheap easy virtue signaling".