Melissa Kearney is a University of Maryland economist professor, author of "The Two-Parent Advantage," known for her research in the field of economic demography. Declining marriage and birth rates frequently dominate discussions about the future of society, but what is the impact of separated parents on the kids who grow up in these homes? Melissa has spent years assessing the data, and her findings are absolutely terrifying.
The Decline of Two-Parent Households: A Societal Crisis
Kearney details a significant societal shift in the United States and other high-income countries: the decline in marriage rates and the corresponding rise in single-parent households. This trend is particularly pronounced outside the college-educated class, leading to a "two-parent privilege" where having a two-parent household has become an advantage primarily for highly educated, high-income individuals. For instance, only 12% of births to mothers with a four-year college degree are outside marriage, compared to more than half for women without a college degree. This disparity holds true across major racial and ethnic groups in the U.S., with the notable exception of Asian Americans, who maintain exceptionally high rates of two-parent households regardless of education or income. The decline is driven by a decoupling of marriage from the act of having and raising children, not by an increase in divorce rates (which are actually down conditional on marriage) or a rise in births among young or teen women (teen childbearing has plummeted by over 70% since the mid-1990s).
Underlying Drivers of the Shift
- Economic Divergence: While college-educated individuals have seen their earnings grow and continue to do well economically over the past four decades, non-college educated adults, especially men, have faced significant economic shocks. Increased import competition from China and the adoption of industrial robots, for example, eliminated many well-paying middle-class manufacturing jobs, weakening the economic value proposition of marriage for these groups.
- Weakened Value Proposition of Marriage: When men experience unstable employment or earn less than their female partners, the perceived value of marriage, both for the man as a provider and for the woman seeking a reliable financial partner, diminishes. Many lower-income individuals express a desire for a stable, healthy marriage but face significant barriers to achieving it, often waiting until they are in a "good place" financially or find a partner who is.
- Erosion of Social Norms: The social norms around having children within marriage shifted significantly in the 1960s and 70s, making cohabitation and children outside of wedlock more socially acceptable. This shift has become more entrenched in communities affected by economic downturns, where people may now have a higher bar for marriage than for having a child. This also means men may feel less "on the hook" to commit to a family, as it's more acceptable to be a non-resident father who "helps out".
- Societal Challenges Among Men: A significant number of fathers in communities with high levels of unmarried parents face barriers such as unstable employment, criminal histories, and struggles with alcohol and drug abuse. These challenges impede their ability to be consistent, supportive partners and engaged fathers.
Profound Impacts of Single-Parent Households on Children and Society
- Economic Disadvantage and Inequality: Children in single-parent households are five times more likely to live in poverty. This is primarily because a single income limits access to resources like better housing, schools, and extracurricular activities. This dynamic deepens the class divide and hinders social mobility across generations.
- Adverse Outcomes for Children: Children from single-parent homes, especially boys, are more likely to face disciplinary issues at school and become involved with the criminal justice system. They tend to have lower high school and college graduation rates, which leads to lower earnings in adulthood. This often creates a cycle, as they are more likely to become single parents themselves.
- Instability of Alternative Family Structures: Neither cohabitation nor remarriage fully replicates the stability and positive outcomes of a household with two married biological parents. Cohabiting relationships are often fragile, and children with step-parents typically have outcomes that fall somewhere between those of single-parent and two-biological-parent families.
- Societal and Demographic Challenges: A decline in marriage contributes directly to lower national birth rates, creating long-term economic problems like a shrinking workforce and increased strain on social insurance programs. Additionally, men who are not central to family life may lack a sense of purpose and tend to have poorer health outcomes and less stable employment compared to their married peers.
Key Action Points and Interventions
- Promote a Pro-Family Culture and Policy: It's crucial to openly acknowledge the benefits of stable, two-parent families as a national policy priority and cultural norm, without stigmatizing single parents. Fostering a culture that values family and parenthood can also have a positive effect on declining birth rates.
- Strengthen the Economic Foundation of Marriage: The focus should be on improving the economic stability and earning potential of men, particularly those without a college degree, in addition to the focus on women. Making marriage a more viable economic proposition for all classes is key and can be achieved without undermining women's financial independence.
- Invest in Proactive Family Strengthening Programs:: Shift public and philanthropic funding from reactive measures (like foster care) to proactive, preventative programs. This includes initiatives that help unmarried parents build strong co-parenting relationships and provide support to strengthen families before they break down.
Chapters
00:02:27 What Has Been Happening to Marriage Rates?
00:07:46 How College Degrees Are Influencing Childbirth & Marriage Rates
00:14:52 Are Women Misjudging What Men Want?
00:25:30 Why Are Declining Marriages a Bad Thing?
00:30:20 Differences in Kids Raised in Two-Parent & One-Parent Homes
00:41:35 Cohabiting Vs Marriage
00:50:25 The Lack of Substitute Father Figures for Boys
00:58:30 Consequences of Eroding Chivalrous Norms
01:08:24 How Many of Societal Problems Are Due to Single-Parent Households?
01:10:10 The Connection Between Marriage Rates & Birth Rates
01:20:25 Melissa’s Interventions to Increase Marriage Rates
01:28:30 Where to Find Melissa